Clinton Township Newsletter

1 2 D e c e m b e r 2 0 1 4 www.ClintonTwpNewsletter.com C L I N T O N T O W N S H I P S C H O O L N E W S www.ctsd.k12.nj.us Miion Statement: C t S d B o a R d o f e d u C a t i o n : B o a R d m e e t i n g d a t e S f o R t h e 2 0 1 4 C a l e n d a R y e a R : December 15, 2014*, January 5, 2015* – Reorganization Meetings will be held on the fourth Monday of the month, except where noted *. Unforeseen circumstances may force the rescheduling of these meetings. In such cases, notice will be given as provided in the Open Public Meetings Act. Meetings are held at Clinton Township Middle School (34 Grayrock Rd.) in the Auditorium or Library at 7:30 pm. Find out what's going on in our schools, meet the Board and the Superintendent! All residents of CT are encouraged to attend, not just the parents of CTSD children. For BOE meeting minutes, visit: www.ctsd.k12.nj.us A L e t t e r f r o m Dr. Drucilla Clark, Superintendent of Schools The Clinton Township Board of Education requested Richard Grip, Ed. D. the Executive Director of Statistical Forecasting, LLC to present information on a demographic study completed for the school district. This was done at the regularly scheduled October 27, 2014 Board of Education meeting. The presentation is available on the district website: www.ctsd. k12.nj.us. Dr. Grip received his Doctorate from Rutgers University Graduate School of Education in Educational Statistics and Measure- ment. He has provided demographic services for approximately 100 school districts in the New York and New Jersey metropolitan area and has been the demographic consultant for the New York City Public Schools since 2006. Dr. Grip has numerous publications on school demography and has presented nationally on the subject. He has also testi- fied as an expert witness on school demography in several Administrative Law hearings. The study had multiple purposes: • Project grade-by-grade enrollments from 2014-2015 through 2018-2019 • Analyze district historical enrollments, birth and fertility rates, community population trends and age structure • Analyze the impact of new developments on enrollment • Project enrollments for existing half-day kindergarten program, as well as if expanding to full-day • Perform housing turnover analysis and project its impact on future enrollment trends Some important points, among many made by Dr. Grip: • Enrollment peaked in 2005-2006 with 1,818 students but has declined for 8 consecutive years. • Median age in community = 40.9 years • Negative first grade replacement (FGR) has occurred for past 9 years. • Negative FGR- Number of graduating 8th grade students is greater than the number of 1st grade students replacing them in the next year. • Births in Clinton Township have been declining: high of 156 in 1999, low of 82 in 2010. • 70 new housing units (53 detached SF); 66 are market-rate • Potential for 65 affordable units to be built by 2017 or 2018 • Another 130 affordable units could be built by 2025. • Little information was available on the type of units to be built or bedroom distribution. • Enrollment Projections from Housing Turnover Analy- sis: Scenario 1: Used average historical turnover rates. Enrollment is projected to decline to 1,407 by 2018-19. Scenario 2: Increased turnover rate of long-held homes; in essence, increasing the selling process of homes that have few children. Enroll- ment is projected to decline to 1,470 by 2018- 2019. Dr. Grip did emphasize that these are projections and social and political changes can impact these projections for the future. Nothing is etched in stone and we have all seen how one event can change the course of history. Overall the projected enrollment is de- clining and the district will have to begin planning and taking this reality into consideration. The State requires that we look at five year projections before determining to close a school and we will have to take many things into consideration re- garding costs and building use, how and what should be done and with which building. Mothballing a building may not be the most effective use of taxpayer dollars. There are no foregone conclusions at this time. Nothing will happen overnight and I am sure there will be many opinions on the subject. It will cause consternation and provide many challenges, however it is a clear necessity that tough decisions will need to be made. The Board President, Maria Grant, appointed an Ad Hoc Board of Education Committee to begin in- vestigating the feasibility of closing a school. However, all options and possibilities will be explored before a final decision is made and the Board will hold a public hearing on the subject. Please take the time to review the audio on the website and read the presentation. It is important that we are all part of this important decision for the future of the Clinton Township Schools and community. Thank you. With appreciation, Dr. Drucilla Clark Superintendent of Schools Please take the time to review the audio and read Dr. Grip's presentation at: www.ctsd.k12.nj.us or click on this web address on the online version of the Clinton Township Newsletter at: www.ClintonTwpNewsletter.com Dear Parents and Community Members:

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